Justine Frangouli – Argyris

The Greek word “kolotoumba,” or somersault, indicative of a complete reversal in one’s thinking or policies, has become the new catchphrase of the Greek political scene, repeatedly trumpeted in the local media as well as the foreign press.

Greece’s newly elected, radical-left Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has already performed his first kolotoumba by opting for a coalition with Panos Kammenos of the right-wing Independent Greeks, a party, like Tsipras’s, that is staunchly anti-austerity but that derives from the complete opposite end of the political spectrum.

Yianis Varoufakis, the country’s newly appointed Finance Minister, also did a kolotoumba as he is no longer putting an emphasis on a reduction of the Greek debt by indicating that a lengthening of the repayment terms could be an acceptable alternative.

The European Union also made a kolotoumba of its own as it does not appear to be threatening the new government with ultimatums but, rather, encouraging a new dialogue in the hope of finding a potential consensus.

Alexis Tsipras performed another kolotoumba by putting aside his pre-election promises to restore public sector salaries to their pre-crisis levels, rehire all dismissed civil servants and do away with the crippling taxes imposed by previous administrations, merely promising to raise the minimum wage and restore electricity to the country’s impoverished.

By Sunday evening, Tsipras, the leader of the radical-left Syriza party who triumphed in Greece’s national elections by claiming 149 seats in the Greek Parliament, only two shy of an outright majority, started the kolotoumbas and his European partners quickly followed, making the word the key when it comes to the subject of the country’s future in the eurozone.

The Europeans are seeking a new deal with Tsipras in order to keep Greece within the group. Although Germany insists that Greece must adhere to its debt obligations, other voices in the European Union are musing about the possibility of an elongation in the repayment of the country’s debt in order to make it viable for the crippled Greek economy.

Even Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the stern chairman of the Eurogroup, has stated that although there is minimal support for any debt write-off negotiations, there will be discussions on the issue. And, even the hard-line Prime Minister of Finland and the Finance Minister of Belgium have left open the possibility of extending or reducing Greece’s debt load.

Yanis Varoufakis, who was adamant in his pre-election discourses, at times even discussing a potential return to the Drachma for the country, told the BBC that a “Grexit is not on the cards; we are not going to Brussels and to Frankfurt and to Berlin in confrontational style..” and indicated that there is great potential for a mutually beneficial solution to be found.

Of course, all discussions are premature at this stage as the situation is very fluid in the country. The people, tired and humiliated after five years of recession, with unemployment at 26 percent of the population and at 50 percent among its young, with a large exodus of talented Greeks going abroad in the quest of a job and with 2.5 millions Greeks subsisting below poverty thresholds, voted massively for Alexis Tsipras, providing him with a solid mandate to negotiate an end to the country’s harsh austerity measures.

On the other hand, the new Prime Minister, along with his associate in government, Panos Kammenos, has the delicate task of concluding a new loan agreement with his European partners while also maintaining a tough fiscal line in order to keep the budget balanced or, in the least, not let it exceed the European benchmark of three percent of GDP.

At the same time, the boisterous leftists in Syriza are pushing Tsipras to deliver on his pre-election promises, pledges that would dramatically increase the deficit, while Kammenos remains rather skeptical to any such ideas.

The various conflicts within Syriza, with its hodgepodge mix of radical and extreme-radical leftists and more moderate socialists, and those within the new governmental alliance, foreshadow difficult days ahead for the people of Greece who voted for change and relief but want to remain in a united Europe. Perhaps, from here on in, hope in Europe’s future may be spelled k-o-l-o-t-o-u-m-b-a!

Huffington Post – With the clock quickly counting down towards election day in Greece this January 25, the two competitors for the Prime Ministerial chair are Alexis Tsipras, the fiery leader of the leftist Syriza party, and Antonis Samaras, the stoic head of the conservative New Democracy party who governed the country until the fall of the coalition last week.

All major polls have Syriza as front-runner, a fact that is putting a scare into the financial markets and creating tension among Greece’s electorate which, although wishful of a change in direction and in need of a respite from the harsh austerity “memorandum” imposed by the country’s lenders, remains leery of the party’s radical positions.

In the run-up to voting day, New Democracy continues to play a somewhat exhausted trump card, that of attempting to provoke a wave of panic among the voters without offering any realistic proposal for the amelioration of a situation that has plunged the country into a five year recession and left its citizens unemployed and in despair.

Importantly, it appears that neither of the two major parties will be able to procure an outright majority, leaving whoever prevails requiring the support, and perhaps needing to co-govern with, one or more of the smaller factions.

Of course, the potential scenarios are many. The Party of the Independent Greeks (ANEL), led by Panos Kammenos, which appeared to be in a strong position, saw its fortunes take a turn for the worse as it found itself caught up in a farcical corruption scandal when one of its outspoken members, Pavlos Chaikalis, claimed he was offered millions to help keep the Samaras government afloat. The result was a black mark on Greece’s democracy, a ridiculing of its Parliamentary institutions and a swift drop in ANEL’s popularity.

Another party that hopes to breach the 3% threshold required for Parliamentary representation is the recently created “To Potami” (The River) led by well-known journalist Stavros Theodorakis. Although it managed to secure an impressive percentage of the popular vote in European elections last May, the voters will be scrutinizing Potami much more closely this time around as it remains a group defined by a very vague political program without any parliamentary or governmental experience and devoid of any ideological platform. As it did earlier last year, the party is looking to amass a large protest vote but this may be wishful thinking given that the electorate tends to treat elections to the European Parliament very differently from national ones.

In the meantime, a new party has emerged under the tutelage of George Papandreou, son of the former Prime Minister and legendary founder of Pasok, Andreas Papandreou. The younger Papandreou had a brief stint of his own as Prime Minister in 2010, winning a strong majority after naively professing that Greece’s problems could be solved “because there is money!” Papandreou saw himself forced out after saddling the country with its first austerity “memorandum,” forever linking his name with the tactics of the “troika” of Greece’s creditors and the dire economic state of the nation.

Shortly afterwards, he would go on to lose the leadership of Pasok to its current leader and Greece’s recent Vice-President, Evangelos Venizelos. Regardless, with the backing of some old appartchiks who remain loyal to his father’s legacy and to his family, Papandreou hopes to make a comeback by securing the votes to achieve a Parliamentary presence and filling the role of power-broker in a minority government situation. The outlook for Papandreou does not appear bright, however, accused as he is, by the Greek public, of being inept during his tenure.

Finally, this brings us to the official party of the socialist movement, Pasok, under the guidance of the aforementioned Evangelos Venizelos. Venizelos was Papandreou’s Defence Minister at the time the country was initially placed under the watchful eye of the country’s triumvirate of lenders. Later, at a significant political cost to himself and his party, he entered into a coalition government with Antonis Samaras and supported the harsh terms of the “memorandum” in an effort to improve the country’s plight by rectifying its budgetary imbalance.

Venizelos would seem to be the one most likely to fill the role of “third pillar” in the elections by attracting enough support to hold the balance of power in a minority government. Although weary from many years in office, his Pasok party continues to hold staunchly to its center-left ideology. And, despite the strains of a break with its traditional Papandreou faction and the loss of the bulk of its supporters to the more radical Syriza, it remains a force that helped to guide the country in the most difficult of times.

As for Evangelos Venizelos, whose popularity may not be at its apex, he must be respected as one who made sure that Papandreou did not proceed with a potentially tragic referendum on Greece’s European membership and looked up to as the country’s most capable negotiator with respect to the upcoming deliberations on Greece’s future.

Should Syriza be ultimately elected, it should look to secure the backing of Venizelos, putting his experience to good use if it hopes to smoothly lead the transition of the country into the “post-memorandum” era.

If New Democracy is the victor, it will be unable to continue its policy of structural reform and hope to exit the “memorandum” with the support of lesser, more inexperienced partners.

In both cases, only Pasok can play the crucial role of “third pillar” with the ability to sustain a viable Greek government on January 26th.